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Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Finance. Show all posts

August 10, 2018

The Richest Woman in America (Hetty Green in the Gilded Age)

Here's the vocabulary list for The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age by Janet Wallach.

ISBN 978-0-385-53197-9
Wallach, Janet. The Richest Woman in America: Hetty Green in the Gilded Age. Crown, 2013.

Representative Quotes

"New York was celebrating a financial boom. New institutions were opening on every corner, filling the canyons of Wall Street with retail banks, commercial banks, insurance companies, and brokerage firms. Investors in mining, real estate, and transportation were flush with funds. Eager to spend their new wealth, they were tearing down old buildings as fast as they could and putting up new ones so frequently that Harper's Magazine complained the city was unrecognizable for anyone born forty years before. Walt Whitman called it a 'rabid, feverish itching for change.'

Newly rich couples filled extravagant mansions with fabulous furnishings and installed bathrooms with hot and cold running water on every floor. Those who earned $10,000 a year and wanted a place in society were expected to have a big new house, a country place, a carriage, and a box at the opera, and, of course, to play host to lavish parties and balls." (p. 22-3)

"While Caroline thrived on New York's social whirl, Hetty sought escape from the city's commotion. While Caroline gushed with friends over the latest fashions, Hetty cocked an ear toward the men conversing on finance. While Caroline was intent on enhancing her position, Hetty was focused on expanding her fortune. The debutantes' world held little attraction for her: she may have enjoyed dancing, and she may have indulged in gossip, but she had no taste for frothy teas, no craving for fussy clothes, no liking for luxuries that money could buy. Hetty hungered for money itself." (p. 30)

"When [Hetty's father] asked her why she still had money in her New York bank account, she told him that with the $1,200 he had given her, she had bought $200 worth of clothes. The rest, she proudly announced, she had invested in bonds that had already grown in value. 'That investment turned out so well that I soon made others,' she told an acquaintance." (p. 31)

"Entrepreneurs willing to build the rail lines prodded the federal government to grant them land along which they could lay the tracks. But even though the land was free, they needed money for payrolls and equipment. Smart investors and shrewd speculators could see the future whizzing before them. Tempted by the possibility of huge returns from railroads and from the development of the land surrounding them into towns, mining centers, and manufacturing hubs, they poured money into New York banks. A flood of new funds arrived from Boston and New Bedford, from Chicago and St. Louis, and from London, Paris, and Frankfurt. Awash in capital, the banks loaned money at easy interest rates to railroad promoters, mining prospectors, land speculators, merchants, and farmers." (p. 33)

"Everyone wanted a piece of the prosperity pie. Eager clients could almost taste their earnings as they bought shares of everything from the Crystal Palace, even as its stock was plummeting from 175 to 53, to the Reading Railroad to Pacific mining ventures. 'You can't lose,' stock salesmen promised naive clients. Trading in railroad stocks zoomed. Canny manipulators devised new instruments that enabled them to purchase more shares with less cash....

That same month Eerie Railroad stocks started sliding. Soon after, investors were agog when the New Haven Railroad announced that its president, Robert Schuyler, a prominent member of New York society, had swindled the company of $2 million. More railroads slipped as confidence fell, and for a few months Wall Street, trading primarily in railroad stocks, ran gloomily off the track. But if speculators who had bought on margin were forced to sell their shares to cover their losses, shrewd investors like Commodore Vanderbilt and speculators like Jay Gould swooped up the stocks at low prices. Hetty Robinson would later do the same.

Railroads were falling, but a feverish rush for gold sent mining stocks soaring. Midwestern banks opened branches in New York so that customers could redeem their notes in the East. Five new bank buildings, commended for their graceful architecture, were under construction on Wall Street, and the total number of banks in the city was on its way to doubling. It seemed as though everyone was becoming rich.

For three years the boom continued. Banks encouraged spending and loaned generously at low interest. When customers reached their credit limit, instead of cutting off further loans, the bankers urged them to borrow more, and then sold the loans at discounted prices to other institutions. With easy money, merchants and manufacturers expanded their businesses. Consumers shopped at a furious pace, importing fancy French furnishings for their oversized mansions....

The country was drunk on prosperity." (p. 35)

"And then the bubble burst. Toward the end of 1857, the news from the Ohio Life Insurance and Trust Company leaked the first bits of air. Unbeknownst to its Midwestern directors, the manager of its New York branch had embezzled millions of dollars. In addition, the bank had borrowed funds from other New York institutions in order to lend money to railroad builders and speculators in railroad stocks. But European demand for American grain had waned with the end of the Crimean War, and with bumper crops around the world, Midwestern farmers received lower prices and shipped fewer foodstuffs by railroad.

"The overextended railroads had borrowed millions of dollars from Ohio Life and could not pay them back. When the insurance company revealed its $2 million loss from the embezzlement plus $5 million in losses on loans to railroad builders, stocks speculators, and in its own trading accounts, the New York banks demanded the money owed them. In response, Ohio Life declared bankruptcy at its New York office and shut its doors.

"Events spiraled downward.

"Midwestern banks were forced to borrow more money from New York. The farmers who withdrew their money from their accounts every summer to cover seasonal costs could not replace it in the fall; nor could they repay the merchants who had extended them credit. N.H. Wolfe, the oldest flour and grain company in New York, declared bankruptcy. The president of a Michigan railroad announced his resignation. Railroad stocks slid to half their prices of four years earlier.

"Big bankers, worried that other clients were overextended, nervously called their customers for immediate repayment of matured loans. But Ohio Life was not the only one that had borrowed far beyond its means. Within weeks other banks and major Wall Street investors, ruined by bad loans, suspended operations or defaulted. Rumors raced through the city, growing more exaggerated at every telling. Crowds huddled in the canyons of Wall Street as panicked creditors, worried that their banks would not be able to pay them, withdrew their money. Although each bank issued its own version of paper money backed by gold, in reality the paper notes were not at par value with the metal. The public demanded the gold. With imports high and confidence low, the banks were forced to make their payments in gold, but their stores of specie, as metal coins were called, were shrinking.

"Dark clouds hovered. 'People look dubious and whisper darkly,' one man wrote, noting that several stock operators suffered serious failures. A few clever men like Russell Sage, a future role model for Hetty, kept substantial amounts of cash on hand and used it to buy stocks at rock-bottom prices. John Pierpont Morgan told his son there was a good lesson to be learned from other people's greed and good bargains to be found in the aftermath. In future times, Hetty would always keep cash available and use it to buy when everyone else was selling. Much later, Warren Buffett would do the same. But most people watched their money wash away in the flood; it felt like the crash and depression that had taken place twenty years before." (pp. 39-40)

" 'Extra! Extra!' 'War has begun!' newsboys shouted on April 12. Looming over New York was the threat that the South would lower its import duties to half the northern tariffs, ship cotton to Europe, and open its harbors to household goods and war materiel. What would happen if southern cotton no longer flowed to New York? If southern loans were no longer paid to the city's banks? If southern orders for goods were no longer sent to New York?

"With visions of ships rotting in the East River and grass growing in the streets, New York businessmen were roused from their neutral slumber. They could no longer afford to rest while another financial panic hit the city. Instead, they rallied to keep the Union intact." (p. 51)

"The rules of the marketplace state that for every seller there must be a buyer. The more the public discounted paper money, pushing it down as low as fifty cents on the dollar, the more Hetty bought. This was the start of the contrary investing she followed for the rest of her life: buying when everyone else was selling; selling when everyone else was buying. 'I buy when things are low and nobody wants them. I keep them until they go up and people are crazy to get them. That is, I believe, the secret of all successful business,' she said.

"Her philosophy reverberates today in the transactions of Warren Buffett. After a tumultuous period in the stock market, he told his shareholders in 2010: 'We've put a lot of money to work during the chaos of the last two years. It's been an ideal period for investors: a climate of fear is their best friend.' " (p. 71)

"The U.S. government provided vast amounts of tax-free land around the tracks in the West and gave rights to the minerals in the ground; but in order to finance the projects, the railroad builders borrowed money, using the land as collateral. American bankers eagerly loaned them the money for construction, and then, to soften their own risk and increase their profits, they issued bonds. Seeking money for the bonds in London, Paris, and Frankfurt, they were welcomed with open arms. The Bank of England was paying interest rates of 3 to 6 percent, while the Americans were offering as much as 18 percent to lenders. Pleased to find such an attractive place for their funds, the Europeans quadrupled their investments to over $200 million in railroads and $1 billion in American stocks and bonds." (p. 78)

"Abigail Adams, who had bought 'State Notes' after the Revolutionary War when there was little confidence in the new government, found out the value of depreciated bonds. Against the objections of her husband, who put his money in land, Abigail used her pin money to buy the bonds, which increased far more in value than her husband's real estate. With Edward's knowledge of railroads and banking, with American industry booming, and with inflation soaring, Hetty increased her share of railroad stocks and U.S. Treasury bonds. The bonds would prove to be an outstanding investment." (p. 79)

"Opportunists in London were also buying greenbacks from local merchants: English businessmen were paid in paper money by American customers but could not exchange the greenbacks for a decent rate at the British banks. Promissory notes, cosigned by prestigious bankers, were being sold at discounts as high as 60 percent. Marcus Goldman, an immigrant from Germany, set up an office on Pine Street to buy and sell this commercial paper. Later he would team with his son-in-law Samuel Sachs, forming the company Goldman Sachs, to raise capital for American companies. When the American government agreed to pay par value for greenbacks, making the paper money almost equal to gold, arbitrageurs like Goldman and the Lazard Brothers, based in California and London, made a fortune." (pp. 79-80)

"New York was flush with money. The city was flooded with an endless stream of funds from Europe, ready credit from the banks for mortgages, 10 percent margin accounts on Wall Street, junk bonds and other newly devised railroad debentures, and other instruments for trading stocks, such as puts and calls - the option to sell (puts) or buy (calls) a stock at a specified price - used by the financier Russell Sage. The abundance of money had encouraged a 500 percent increase in railroad building since the end of the Civil War, gaining land grants for the builders but allowing tracks to be laid that sometimes went aimlessly from point to point. Along with the railroad boom came massive real estate speculation and a rash of consumer spending across the country.

" 'Everybody seemed to be making money,' said one writer, adding, 'nobody suspected he was living in a fool's paradise.' Even Chicago was quickly climbing back on its feet, with orders in place for steel and iron to erect buildings that would make it the most modern city in the country. In New York, where as fast as the stock market dropped, it bounced back, elegant patrons dined on oysters and champagne at Delmonico's new restaurant." (pp. 86-7)

"Central European banks and London financial institutions had money readily available for speculation in railroads and real estate. Developers in Paris, Berlin, and Vienna were furiously erecting elaborate public buildings and private homes in the beaux arts style, even using the promise of future houses as collateral on new mortgages.

"The rampant rush to buy more land at low interest rates sent property prices soaring. Yet even as the costs rose, real estate opportunists continued to borrow until they reached a point where buyers could not afford the land. The speculators were unable to pay back the interest on their loans. When the worthless mortgages caused a few European banks to collapse in the spring of 1873, the British institutions, wary of more shaky mortgages held by the rest of the banks, raised their lending rates. The bubble burst on the Continent.

"Moody's magazine observed a few years later: 'The world as a whole was money mad... All the great European cities seem to have had booms at this time. Vienna and Berlin were the most frenzied. The prices of sites went to purely fictitious figures, and the phenomenon was prevalent of the speculator who bought property, mostly on credit which he did not expect to use, with the expectation of forestalling the deferred payments by a sale at an advance.' The editors continued, 'At the same time, Europe was pouring the oil of its money on the flames of American speculation. Railways spanned the continent and gridironed the states.

" 'Suddenly something snapped, and the machinery stopped. A Vienna banking house broke under the weight of too heavy a load of Missouri, Kansas and Texas securities, followed by another carrying too much Canada Southern. The financial organism winced like a leviathan with a harpoon in his vitals.' As the spasms spread from stock exchanges to banks, and from banks to investors, from Istanbul to Stockholm and from Edinburgh to Alexandria, the world crouched in pain. The wounds had come from speculation, but, said Moody's, 'No war ever made more misery.' " (p. 88)

"The scarcity of funds triggered disaster: merchants defaulted because they could not find money to run their businesses; farmers went bankrupt because they could not borrow to plant their crops; railroads lost income because of the smaller shipments of food. The railroads were already suffering from the Eering Ring outrage with its worthless stock and corrupt activities in Washington; the Union Pacific scandal, which, like the Eerie, uncovered stolen profits and bribed politicians; and a general loss of confidence in railroad management....

"The Northern Pacific Railroad, which had been running at a loss and spending money to lay track faster than it was acquiring funds, announced on September 18, 1873, that it could no longer afford to pay bondholders the 8.5 percent dividend. The railroad folded in default. The highly reputable banking house of Jay Cooke & Company, which earlier had raised hundreds of millions of dollars in bond sales to finance the Civil War, had loaned money to the Northern Pacific. Now the railroad was unable to pay its debts to Jay Cooke, and the prominent firm was forced to close." (p. 89)

"The panic took its toll on almost everyone. It terrorized men who looked as though they had aged ten years in one day. Brokers, vigorous the day before, were walking with their backs bent from the blows of the market. Bankers, so confident yesterday, were leaning on canes, unsteady on their feet today....

"In every case financial crises followed a period of rampant and extravagant speculation." (pp. 90-1)

"At this time when stocks were being abandoned, Hetty wanted to trade.... 'When I see a good thing going for cheap because nobody wants it, I buy a lot of it and tuck it away.' For Hetty, the decline in the market offered an opportunity for the future.... She had a pile of cash when others were scouring for pennies, but she also had a deft mind and the colossal courage to push against the crowd.

"It was far easier to lose money than to make it.... Vanderbilt bought his stocks for cash and was able to wait out the market. But his followers, who risked their money on 10 percent margin, were racing to cover their losses. When a friend complained, he replied, 'If you had bought a hundred shares instead of a thousand, you could have held on. Never be in too great a hurry to get rich.' " (p. 94)

"While government officials and Congress argued over whether to allow deflation or encourage inflation, farmers and even small businessmen resorted to methods of barter. In 1874, a conservative Congress passed a bill to devalue the dollar by printing more money. The following year, after the economy failed to improve, Congress legislated to strengthen the system by backing U.S. dollars with gold. Those like Hetty, who had held on to their discounted greenbacks bought after the Civil War, were now flush with wealth." (p. 95)

"When her cleaning lady gave birth to a son, Hetty gave her a gold piece and told her to deposit it in the bank. Keep it there until he is twenty-one, she advised. Instead of understanding the lesson of compound interest, the woman scorned her for saving instead of spending.... 'Watch your pennies and the dollars will take care of themselves.' " (p. 99)

"Mrs. E.H. Green... is believed to be the richest woman in America, a title earned by her own business sagacity, energy, and watchfulness.... She has lived a frugal life, exercised extraordinary keenness in her investments, and by embracing every good opportunity that the stock market afforded her, she has more than quintupled her heritage." (p. 116)

"I have observed that many a tattered garment hides a package of bonds and that gorgeous clothing does not always cover a millionaire." (p. 118)

"When she had read, quizzed, grilled, interrogated, and investigated enough, when she had studied the costs, analyzed the assets, and dug through the debts, when she had found the answers to suit her, when she knew the true worth of a company and understood its weaknesses, when she was satisfied that its basic values were sound and its assets strong, that the downside risk was low and the upside high, then she invested her money." (p. 121)

"She much preferred common people to the stuffy socialites of the upper class." (p. 121)

"If Mr. Astor did not appear at his wife's glittering balls, neither did many of his colleagues. While their wives and daughters, wearing Parisian gowns (and paying a 50 percent import tax for the privilege), descending from their brownstones and townhouses in the dark of night and, under the gaze of gossip columnists, partied with idle males till 2 a.m., the men who made the money supped early and went to sleep. Jay Gould, James Lenox, and William Vanderbilt, recoiling at the word 'cotillion,' retreated to their private clubs. Henry James understood: 'The highest luxury of all, the supremely expensive thing, is constituted privacy.' " (p. 123)

"When others were failing, Hetty often stepped in and saved them by buying their mortgages. The secret, of course, was available cash. She loved a bargain, and having money on hand to pick up distressed assets gave her a distinct advantage in the marketplace. Then, when the banks allowed foreclosure on her mortgages, Hetty assumed the property.

"Such was the case when she was sued for a mortgage she had purchased years before. In 1873, Hetty had loaned $150,000 for a mortgage, and after three years of nonpayment the bank foreclosed; she bought the property at a bargain price. By 1890 its value had grown to $1 million." (p. 140)

"You should never marry a society man with my consent. I want to see you happily married and in a home of your own, but I want you to marry a poor young man of good principles who is making an honest hard fight for success. I don't care whether he's got $100 or not, provided he is made of the right stuff. You will have more money than you'll ever need and it isn't necessary to look for a young man with money. Now you know my wish and I hope I won't hear anything more about your young man in Newport who knows just about enough to part his hair in the middle and spend his father's money." (p. 147)

"The rich needed to spend their money in order to improve their social position; the newer their money, the more they spent. They were spreading their dollars abroad, buying more clothes, more jewels, more furnishings, more food, and more wines from Europe, creating a demand for more payments in gold from American banks." (pp. 155-6)

"Companies whose stocks had skyrocketed, whose dividends defied gravity, collapsed when their lack of capital was revealed. Money became so tight that short-term interest rates soared as high as 75 percent. The National Cordage Company, one of the most heavily traded stocks on the exchange, could not get credit and declared insolvency. The market plunged. Investors panicked. The Gilded Age, like other eras of avarice, opulence, and easy credit, burst from gluttony." (p. 156)

"Perceptions of Hetty were as varied as those of the Wizard of Oz.... 'I've been reading of Hetty Green. I think she must be crazy....' 'Why, she's worth 40 millions....' 'Then she can't be crazy. She's only eccentric.' " (p. 165)

"The case against the trustees of Edward Robinson's estate was first brought about by the sale of property in Cicero, near Chicago, in 1888. The executors had insisted on selling the vacant land for $650,000 although they had been offered $800,000 for the same acreage. The sale roused Hetty's suspicions: she accused the men of investing her father's money with their own interests in mind. Fees they charged for managing the trust seemed excessive and included payments to their own relatives. Money they paid to public officials 'for improving the morals of the city' went toward procuring improvements on the trustees' property. Improvements they made had no effect on her land but clearly enhanced their own. Claims were made for repairs but no vouchers were produced. And no accounting of the trust had been made in more than a decade. When Hetty asked to see the papers, they balked at bringing them forth." (p. 166)

"Instead of giving her money away lavishly like Annie Leary, she handed it out meagerly, providing jobs, not welfare, avoiding the publicity that led to more requests.... 'Hetty Green has in secret done a vast deal more of philanthropy than the public can give her credit for.' " (p. 170)

"To live content with small means; To seek elegance rather than luxury, And refinement rather than fashion; To be worthy, not respectable, and wealthy, not rich." (p. 176)

"With money readily available, investors and manipulators borrowed from the banks to buy stocks. The rash of buying sent prices zooming: men whispered hot tips in one another's ears; rumors roiled of companies going sour; stories spread of huge amounts of money being made overnight. Hetty watched from the sidelines as America swirled in another carnival of speculation; rich and poor rushed to the carousel and reached for the brass ring. Corporate leaders and clerks bought and sold on margin; many bought shares being offered to bankroll the purchases of worthless firms. The irresponsible borrowing echoed the past: 'I wasn't worth a cent two years ago, and now I owe two million dollars,' mocked Mark Twain in The Gilded Age. The reckless use of margin and the razzle-dazzle of new industrial stocks also predicted the future, foreshadowing the dot-com bubble and the frenzy for initial public offerings at the turn of the twenty-first century.

"Everyone but Hetty seemed to be buying. She did not buy industrials, she said, and never bought with borrowed money.... Her approach was far more cautious: 'When good things are so low that no one wants them, I buy them and lay them away in a safe; when owing to some new development, they go up and my shares are so needed that men will pay well for them, I am ready to sell.'

"She watched for bargains but never bought to be in style... In the frantic heat of the market Hetty kept a cool head. She attributed her success to her basic rule: 'always buying when everyone wants to sell, and selling when everyone wants to buy. As easy as her motto appeared, it took restraint to keep from buying while others swooped up stocks in the euphoria of a boom; it took courage to remain calm while the crowd dumped their shares overboard in a wave of panic." (p. 191-2)

"She believed that a knowledge of business would make a woman a better wife. In the past, said Hetty, at the end of the day the only thing a woman could do to relieve her husband's strain was 'to make herself as pretty as a wax doll. But there is no reason why that primitive idea... should continue to exist in the sense it once did.' A woman who understood the pressures on her husband would be a far more sympathetic spouse.

"In spite of her strong words, she had little support for women's suffrage and no desire to see a woman president. 'I should hope not,' she said piercing the interviewer with her steely eyes. 'I don't believe in so-called women's rights. I am willing to leave politics to the men.' Indeed, she had never taken office at any corporate board, nor had she been the public face of any company; she left it to her husband and son to hold those positions. Nonetheless, she wished women had more rights in the world of commerce. 'I could have succeeded much easier had I been a man. I find men will take advantage of women in business that they would not attempt with men.' " (pp. 195-6)

"As the boom continued, more and more Americans were eager to take part, borrowing money from the banks to buy stocks at prices that soared like out-of-control hot-air balloons.

"At the same time, the cost of land skyrocketed around the country, as people raced to buy up real estate in cities, towns, and rural communities. Inevitably, the cost of borrowing the money to buy the land rose precipitously. While others bought, Hetty sold. 'I saw the handwriting on the wall,' she said later. 'Every real estate deal which I could possibly close up was converted into cash.'

"In 1905 the call for money surpassed anything that had come before. The heavy requests pushed interest rates up, causing many people to owe the banks far more than they had....

"Black clouds hung over the debtors; many had little choice but to divest their holdings. Hetty watched as rich men arrived at the Chemical; doffing their top hats, drawing out their expensive engraved cards, and handing them to the clerk at the door, they sought her out to sell off their possessions. As rates rose, more and more of 'the solidest men in Wall Street... financials to legitimate businessmen,' came to call, begging to unload everything from palatial mansions to automobiles." (p. 199)

"When it comes to spending your life, there have to be some things neglected. If you try to do too much, you can never get anywhere. As I was naturally made for work, I just as naturally wasn't made for a fashion plate. I have never bothered about what to wear.... I like to see what other people are wearing. It does me good sometimes and gives me a laugh." (p. 221)

"She had enough of courage to live as she chose and to be as thrifty as she pleased, and she observed such of the world's conventions as seemed to her right and useful, coldly and calmly ignoring all the others." (p. 227)

SAT Vocabulary Words

Brocade: a rich fabric, usually silk, woven with a raised pattern, typically with gold or silver thread.
"buying brocades from Frace" (p. 7)

Mainstay: a thing on which something else is based or depends.
"The Howland and Robinson families were a mainstay of whaling and banking" (p. 8)

Sagacious: having or showing keen mental discernment and good judgment; shrewd.
"sagacious businessman" (p. 8)

Rectitude: morally correct behavior or thinking; righteousness.
"He trusted his brothers in commerce and knew he could rely on them for honesty and goodwill, candor and rectitude." (p. 8)

Vestibule: an antechamber, hall, or lobby next to the outer door of a building.
"advancing no farther than the vestibule" (p. 26)

Frock: a loose outer garment, in particular.
"frock coats" (p. 28)

Watchword: a word or phrase expressing a person's or group's core aim or belief.
"Waste was wicked; frugality was his watchword." (p. 30)

Duds: clothes.
"Take your duds and leave." (p. 55)

Fete: a celebration or festival.
"Ordinary fetes were forgotten as Hetty watched her once-vigorous father waste away." (p. 64)

Conundrum: a question asked for amusement, typically one with a pun in its answer; a riddle.
"conundrums, charades, or chess" (p. 75)

Sultan: a Muslim sovereign.
"sultan of Turkey" (p. 75)

Dapper: (typically of a man) neat and trim in dress, appearance, or bearing.
"dapper entrepreneurs who all hoped for blessings" (p. 77)

Sojourn: a temporary stay.
"sojourned in the country and at the seaside" (p. 83)

Scurrilous: making or spreading scandalous claims about someone with the intention of damaging their reputation.
"the scurrilous Gould and his band of thieves were forced of the Eerie board" (p. 87)

Avowed: that has been asserted, admitted, or stated publicly.
"he had borrowed more against company stock than had been avowed; furthermore, he had falsified the company's statements, claiming far less debt than the real amount" (p. 115)

Penurious: parsimonious; mean.
Parsimonious: unwilling to spend money or use resources; stingy or frugal.
"a penurious man who seated his guests on rickety chairs and served them expensive wine poured into broken mugs" (p. 183)

Fortnight: a period of two weeks.
"for a fortnight he followed her to Hoboken" (p. 184)

Palatial: resembling a palace in being spacious and splendid.
"palatial mansions" (p. 199)

Scion: a descendant of a notable family.
"a scion of a real estate family" (p. 210)

July 14, 2018

Street Smarts (Jim Rogers)

Here's the vocabulary list for Street Smarts: Adventures On the Road and in the Markets by Jim Rogers.

ISBN 978-0-307-98607-8
Lewis, Michael. Street Smarts: Adventures On the Road and In the Markets. Crown, 2013.

Representative Quotes

"Work experience in one's youth offers quantifiable benefits. While teaching the value of money, it also helps you develop an identity; in learning to manage finances, you gain a tangible measure of autonomy.... A Columbia business school dean, citing a university study, told me that the single most important predictor of a happy life in adulthood was having a paying job as a teenager." (p. 9)

"[The senior partner at Dominick and Dominick] said, '[Business school] will teach you nothing useful there. Come down here and sell soybeans short, once, and you will learn much more about markets than you will wasting two years with them." (p. 12)

"The current bull market in commodities began in 1999. We are fourteen years into it, at the time of this writing. Like all bull markets, it will end in a bubble. When, at cocktail parties, people are telling you how much money they made in soybeans, it will be time to get out." (p. 28)

"The study of philosophy and history were indispensable to me as an investor. You must know yourself better if you want to accomplish anything in life - you must learn to think at a deeper, more profound level if you want to understand the truth.... Studying philosophy helped me to think for myself, to think outside the established framework. It taught me to examine things independently, to examine every concept and every 'fact.' It taught me to think around corners, to see what is missing. So many people today are caught up in conventional thinking because it is easier and safer to echo perceived wisdom, to echo the opinion of the majority, with one's intellectual processes circumscribed by such concepts as state, culture, or religion. To think differently from others is difficult. Philosophy teaches you to think, and in doing so it teaches you to doubt.

"If history teaches us nothing else, it teaches us this: what appears undisputed today will look very different tomorrow. The most stable and predictable societies have undergone major upheavals. The Austro-Hungarian empire, the glittering jewel of central Europe, was a vast, international center of wealth in 1914. The Vienna stock exchange at the time had something like four thousand members. Within four years the Austro-Hungarian empire disappeared. Pick any year you want, and then move forward ten or fifteen years. Take 1925, when again widespread peace, prosperity, and stability prevailed. How did things look in 1935? In 1940? Pick the first year of any decade in the past fifty years, 1960, 1970, all the way through to the millennium. The conventional wisdom that existed at the start of each decade was shattered over the following ten or fifteen years." (pp. 29-30)

"The beauty, the excitement of Wall Street, is that things are always changing.... Every day you come to work and find that they have moved the pieces on you - somebody dies, there is a strike or a war, weather conditions have shifted. Things change, no matter what. Investing lacks the rhythm of other endeavors, and therefore never stops testing you: if you design a car, there is a predictable period of time in which you produce the car and sell it, and the market will either accept it or reject it, but at least the project has a life span. With investing, nothing stops moving, and that makes it a continual, ongoing challenge... a game, a battle." (p. 35)

"To succeed on Wall Street, you have to be extremely curious. Who knows, when you pick up a rock, what might crawl out and where it will lead? Furthermore, you have to be skeptical. Most of the things you are told, after turning over that rock, are going to be inaccurate, reflecting a lack of knowledge or a distortion of information, whether on the part of a government, a company, or an individual. You cannot take anybody's word for anything. You have to research everything yourself, prove everything yourself. You have to tap every source. A hundred people can walk into a room and hear the same information at the same time, but only 3 or 4 percent of them are going to come out of there and make the right judgment." (pp. 36-37)

"When I started on Wall Street, very few people invested in stocks. As late as the 1960's, individual and institutional investors, such as pension plans and endowments, invested chiefly in bonds. (Currencies and commodities? Few people on Wall Street could even spell those words.)... It is inconceivable to today's MBAs that common stocks were an uncommon investment only a few decades ago. But not until the bull market started in the 1980s did things change in a big way." (p. 37)

"I remember getting out of the army in 1968, talking about investing in things like the Danish krone, and the people around me not having a clue as to what I was going on about. All those smart, experienced older guys were just dumbfounded. It seemed as though they did not know where Denmark was, much less that it presented an opportunity." (p. 39)

"Before asking how much you are going to get paid for a job, first decide whether it is the right job, whether it is the right place for you, because if it is the right place and you do the job right, the money will come.... The money should be the least of your questions." (p. 42)

"I went to see the chairman of Helmerich & Payne.... He said, 'Listen, this is a terrible business. I just want to alert you. I am here, this is my family company, and obviously I am not going to leave, but you really should not be investing in this business....' He had explained the downturn in business as something beyond the company's control - there had been a long decline in the number of drilling rigs because drilling for gas or oil had not been profitable. And that just excited me more. Everywhere I went I could see that supplies were drying up. We went out and invested in all of it." (p. 45)

"Do not worry about failure. Do not worry about making mistakes in life. It is good to lose money, to go broke at least once, and preferably twice. But if you are going to do it, do it early in your career. It is better to go bust when you are talking about $20,000 than when you are talking about $20 million. Do it early, and it is not the end of the world.

"Losing everything can be a beneficial experience, because it teaches you how much you do not know. And if you can come back from a failure or two, chances are that you care going to be more successful in the long run." (p. 55)

"After ten years you have made ten times your money. And then you decide to sell. Now, that is a very dangerous time. It is dangerous because that is when you think you are really smart, when you think you are really hot. It is the time when you think you know that this investing thing is an easy game. It is the time you should open your curtains, look out the window, go to the beach, do anything but think about investing. Because now is when you are most vulnerable. You think: I have to find something else. I have to do it again. This is wonderful. This is so easy....

"Most successful investors do nothing most of the time. Do not confuse movement with action. Know when to sit and wait.... Warren Buffett rarely changes his holdings. I do not change my positions a lot since I invest in secular trends, which by definition last many years." (pp. 58-9)

"Why get up at 8:00 A.M. to drag yourself to Spanish class three days a week when you can learn more efficiently and on your own schedule via computer? Does America need thirty thousand expensive, tenured Spanish professors? Is the Spanish professor at Princeton going to teach you Spanish better than anybody else? You can learn Spanish a lot faster, probably better, and certainly for a lot less money, by going online. Likewise with accounting, physics, and calculus." (p. 79)

"The black market is indispensable to one's insight into a country. Right away you know if there is a black market, and if so, whether the currency carries a big premium..... You do not know what is wrong if there is a black market, but it gives you the first hint. And if there is a big premium in the market - a large discrepancy between the official rate and the black market rate - you know something is seriously wrong." (p. 88)

"Today America is borrowing money to pay for military hardware that sits and rusts in the sun. The man who manufactures the hardware makes money, but after that, there is no beneficiary. The investment does not represent an ongoing source of production, the way a canal or a railroad does. Today we spent our borrowed money on transfer payments (over 60 percent of government spending and more than all government revenue), and then people who get the payments certainly have a wonderful time, but such payments do nothing for future productivity. If, as a nation, you are just consuming, instead of investing and saving, the borrowed money does you little good.

"What is worse, the people we have entrusted with the responsibility for addressing the problem - too much consumption, too much debt - have decided that the solution lies in yet more consumption and more debt." (p. 118)

"I was short Citibank, all the investment banks, the homebuilders, and Fannie Mae [in 2008]. The incompetence in Washington and on Wall Street was in fact good to people like me. While countless Americans were watching their life savings evaporate, the skeptical investor enjoyed significant gains." (p. 119)

"In the early 1990s, Japan experienced a big bubble in real estate and stocks. When I was traveling through the country by motorcycle on my first trip around the world, the price of a country club membership in Japan exceeded the price of a house. It was awe inspiring what people in Japan were willing to pay to play golf. The bubble was just peaking. The bubble eventually popped, and everything collapsed.... When I passed through Japan on my second trip around the world, ten years later, its suicide rate was higher than that of any developed country. Everyone was despondent, looking for security. Government jobs were highly sought after. The Japanese were referring to the 1990s as 'the lost decade.'

"And now the lost decade has become two. Today, more than twenty years after the crash, the Japanese stock market is 75 percent below where it was in 1990." (p. 132)

"People get greedy... bankers, clergymen, academics, politicians... especially when times are exceptionally good. People cut corners, do things they might not do under normal conditions, because there is so much prosperity, they are not held to account. Stocks go up. Investments pay off. The corners that are cut actually make people a lot of money. No one questions, or even cares, what happened - they are so happy with all the money they have made.

"Manias cover over a multitude of sins.

" 'You only find out who is swimming naked when the tide goes out,' says Warren Buffett." (pp. 136-7)

"The spark igniting the activity is not necessarily political so much as it is economic: surging inflation, high unemployment, and an escalating cost of living, most significantly a rise in food prices. These are the things that make people deeply angry. (The Tiananmen Square protests in Beijing in the spring of 1989 started out as protests against inflation and rising prices. Not until the Western press showed up did students start shouting words like "democracy.") (p. 209)

" 'Let not him who is houseless pull down the house of another,' said Abraham Lincoln, 'but let him labor diligently and build one for himself, thus by example assuring that his own shall be safe from violence when built." (p. 211)

"North Korea is about to open up. And when it does, it will be a formidable player on the world stage. The Chinese are already pouring in. Up in the northwest, they are building new bridges connecting the two countries. There are new trade zones up there. So change is happening.

"Everywhere we went we could see propaganda posers calling for one country, two systems - which was the prevailing mantra in the late 1990s when Hong Kong went back to China. If the propaganda is to be believed, the country, despite what you read in the United States, is keen for unification. A unified Korea would be an economic powerhouse." (pp. 228-9)

"The successful countries of the world do not tax savings and investment. They encourage their citizens to save and invest. They tax consumption. In America we do the opposite; we encourage consumption. Any interest we pay is tax-deductible....

"The tax system has grown so byzantine that Americans, according to the IRS, spend an estimated 6.6 billion hours a year filling out tax forms. The annual cost of compliance to individuals, corporations, and nonprofits... is between three and four hundred billion dollars....

"Change the tax system, change the education system, institute health-care and litigation reform, and bring the troops home... is that going to happen? The way the world has evolved, most governments, including our own, are dominated and controlled by special interests. And numerous interests, including their lobbyists, have become entrenched around the system already in place. None of these changes can happen the way the government works today.

"In 1789 when the government was established, there were no telephones, the mail was slow, and videoconferencing was unimaginable. So we set up government in one place, Washington, where our representatives could meet. If we were setting up government in 2015, we would probably do it over the Internet. There is no reason for everyone to travel to Washington, especially given what has evolved since the nation was founded, which is a gigantic bureaucracy surrounded and controlled by lobbyists." (pp. 240-1)


SAT Vocabulary Words

Coxswain: the steersman of a ship's boat, lifeboat, racing boat, or other boat.
"competed as a coxswain on the crew" (p. 9)

Picaresque: relating to an episodic style of fiction dealing with the adventures of a rough and dishonest but appealing hero.
"As a boy I had loved reading Dickens's The Pickwick Papers, and the gentlemen of the Pickwick Club and their picaresque adventures may have played some part in the development of my wanderlust." (p. 10)

Scion: a descendant of a notable family.
Venerable: accorded a great deal of respect, especially because of age, wisdom, or character.
"Richard Whitney, president of the New York Stock Exchange, scion of the venerable family for which the Whitney Museum is named" (p. 137)

Caliphate: the rule or reign of a caliph or chief Muslim ruler.
"an Islamic caliphate that flourished for a hundred years" (p. 171)

Habeas corpus: a writ requiring a person under arrest to be brought before a judge or into court, especially to secure the person's release unless lawful grounds are shown for their detention.
"What has changed is not that the government has overstepped its authority - Abraham Lincoln went so far as to suspend habeas corpus - but that the government's doing so has become acceptable, celebrated in some cases." (p. 176)

Dopey: idiotic.
"in walks this dopey little guy wanting to open up a Swiss account with the equivalent of pocket change" (p. 193)

Imam: the person who leads prayers in a mosque.
"People who have tried to outmaneuver the marketplace have never succeeded. No pope, no imam, has the power the negate the laws of supply and demand." (p. 206)

February 11, 2018

The Quants (Scott Patterson)

Here's the vocabulary list for The Quants: How a New Breed of Math Whizzes Conquered Wall Street and Nearly Destroyed It.

ISBN 978-0-307-45337-2
Patterson, Scott. The Quants. Crown Business, 2010.

Representative Quotes

"The very real crash on Black Monday left very real scars on the psyches of the traders who witnessed it.... Meltdowns of such magnitude and ferocity were not supposed to happen in the world's most advanced and sophisticated financial marketplace. They especially weren't supposed to happen in a randomized, Brownian motion world in which the market obeyed neat statistical rules. A 27-standard-deviation event was tantamount to flipping a coin a hundred times and getting ninety-nine straight heads." (p. 54)

"Prices can gyrate wildly over short periods of time - wildly enough to cause massive, potentially crippling losses to investors who've made large, leveraged wagers." (p. 59)

"The value and momentum strategies they'd studied in academia could actually work for entire countries. It was a monumental leap. They would measure a country's stock market, divide by the sum of the book value of each company in that market, and get a price-to-book value for the entire country. If Japan had a price-to-book value of 1.0 and France had a price-to-book of 2.0, that meant Japan was cheap relative to France. The investing process from there was fairly easy: long Japan, short France.
"The applications of this insight were virtually endless. Just as it didn't matter whether a company made widgets or tanks, or whether its leaders were visionaries or buffoons, the specifics of a country's politics, leadership, or national resources had only a tangential bearing on the view from a quant trader's desk. A quantitative approach could be applied not only to a country's stocks and bonds but also to its currencies, commodities, derivatives, whatever. In short order, Asness' team designed models that looked for cheap-versus-expensive opportunities around the globe. Momentum strategies quickly followed." (pp. 134-5)

" 'We are seeing things that were 25-standard-deviation events, several days in a row....' According to quant models, the meltdown of August 2007 was so unlikely that it could never have happened in the history of the human race." (p. 239)

"Greed + Incompetence + A Belief in Market Efficiency = Disaster.... In their desire for mathematical order and elegant models, the economic establishment played down the inconveniently large role of bad behavior... and flat-out bursts of irrationality. The incredibly inaccurate efficient market theory was believed in totality by many of our financial leaders, and believed in part by almost all.... 'Surely, none of this could be happening in a rational, efficient world,' they seemed to be thinking. And the absolutely worst part of this belief set was that it led to a chronic underestimation of asset bubbles breaking." (pp. 290-1)

"In a September 2009 article titled 'How Did Economists Get It So Wrong' in the New York Times Magazine, Nobel Prize-winning economist Paul Krugman lambasted EMH [the efficient market hypothesis] and economists' chronic inability to grasp the possibility of massive swings in prices and circumstances that Mandelbrot had warned of decades earlier. Krugman blamed 'the profession's blindness to the very possibility of catastrophic failures in a market economy.... As I see it, the economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.' " (p. 291)

"Banks and hedge funds employ mathematicians with no financial market experience to build models that no one is testing scientifically for use in situations where they were not intended by traders who don't understand them. And people are surprised by the losses!" (p. 292)

"The Ph.D.'s might know their sines from their cosines, but they often had little idea how to distinguish the fundamental realities behind why the market behaved as it did. They got bogged down in the fine-grained details of their whiz-bang models. Worse, they believed their models were perfect reflections of how the market works. To them, their models WERE the Truth. Such blind faith... was extremely dangerous." (p. 292)

"To ensure that the quant-driven meltdown that began in August 2007 would never happen again, the two uber-quants developed a 'modeler's Hippocratic Oath:'
* I will remember that I didn't make the world, and it doesn't satisfy my equations.
* Though I will use models to boldly estimate value, I will not be overly impressed by mathematics.
* I will never sacrifice reality for elegance without explaining why I have done so.
* Nor will I give the people who use my model false comfort about its accuracy. Instead, I will make explicit its assumptions and oversights.
* I understand that my work may have enormous effects on society and the economy, many of them beyond my comprehension." (pp. 294-5)

"Markets are far less well-behaved than standard financial theory held. Out at the no-man's-land on the wings of the bell curve lurked a dark side of markets that haunted the quants like a bad dream, one many had seemingly banished into subconsciousness." (p. 296)

"A river of money had flowed into hedge funds in recent years, turning it from an industry with less than $100 billion under management in the early 1990's to a $2 trillion force of nature. But the actual amount of investing opportunities hadn't changed very much.... The edge had diminished, but hedge fund managers' and bankers' appetite for gigantic profits had only grown more voracious. That led to massive use of leverage - in other words, overbetting. The inevitable result: gambler's ruin on a global scale." (p. 299)

" 'The available edge has been diminished,' Gross agreed, nothing that Pimco, like Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway, used very little leverage. "And that led to increased leverage to maintain the same returns. It's leverage, the overbetting, that leads to the big unwind. Stability leads to instability, and here we are. The supposed stability deceived people." (p. 300)

"As the financial panic of 2007 and 2008 had shown, liquidity is always there when you don't need it - and never there when you do." (p. 312)

SAT Vocabulary Words

Godfather: a man who is influential or pioneering in a movement or organization.
"Ed Thorp, godfather of the quants" (p. x)

Haut monde: fashionable society
"high-finance haut monde" (p. 2)

Cabaret: a nightclub or restaurant where entertainment is performed.
"singing folk songs in a funky cabaret" (p.5)

Savoir faire: the ability to act or speak appropriately in social situations.
"Though he lacked Muller's savoir faire, Asness was far wealthier" (p. 5)

Scourge: a person or thing that causes great trouble or suffering.
"Asness had been the subject of a lengthy and glowing profile in the New York Times Magazine. He was a scourge of bad practices in the money management industry, such as ridiculously high fees at mutual funds." (p. 5)

Wry: using or expressing dry, especially mocking, humor.
Self-effacing: not claiming attention for oneself; retiring and modest.
"wry, self-effacing sense of humor" (p. 5)

Noir: a genre of crime film or fiction characterized by cynicism, fatalism, and moral ambiguity.
"An old poster from a 1960s film noir by Jean-Luc Godard called Alphaville hung on the walls of PDT's office" (p. 9)

Catcall: a shrill whistle or shout of disapproval, typically one made at a public meeting or performance.
"Griffin rained catcalls on Muller" (p. 10)

Kitty: a fund of money for communal use, made up of contributions from a group of people.
"Citadel's kitty topped $20 billion." (p. 11)

Anabolic steroid: a synthetic steroid hormone that resembles testosterone in promoting the growth of muscle. Such hormones are used medicinally to treat some forms of weight loss and (illegally) by some athletes and others to enhance physical performance.
"trillions more in leverage that juiced their returns like anabolic steroids" (p. 12)

Puckish: playful, especially in a mischievous way.
"Many of the msot important breakthroughs in quant history derived from this obscure, puckish mathematician, one of the first to learn how to use pure math to make money - first at the blackjack tables of Las Vegas and then in the global casino known as Wall Street." (p. 15)

Swing shift: a work shift from mid-afternoon to around midnight.
"the swing shift at Doublas Aircraft" (p. 16)

Croupier: the person in charge of a gaming table, gathering in and paying out money or tokens.
"croupiers take bets after the ball is in motion" (p. 17)

Glad-handing: (especially of a politician) greet or welcome warmly or with the appearance of warmth.
"all smiles and glad-handing" (p. 24)

Absinthe: a potent green aniseed-flavored liqueur, originally made with the shrub wormwood.
"too much absinthe" (p. 30)

Touchstone: a standard or criterion by which something is judged or recognized.
"A quant touchstone, it soon became one of the most influential how-to books on investing ever written." (p. 32)

Stochastic: randomly determined; having a random probability distribution or pattern that may be analyzed statistically but may not be predicted precisely.
"Scholes and Robert Merton, an MIT professor whose ingenious use of stochastic calculus had further validated the Black-Scholes model, would win the Nobel Prize for their work on option pricing." (p. 40)

Heady: having a strong or exhilarating effect.
"Thorp and Regan were managing about $130 million, a heady increase from the $10,000 stake Thorp had received from Manny Kimmel" (p. 41)

Peripatetic: traveling from place to place, especially working or based in various places for relatively short periods.
"After Merrill, the peripatetic Tartaglia went to five other firms before landing at Morgan in 1984." (p. 42)

Agog: very eager or curious to hear or see something.
Pointed: (of a remark or look) expressing criticism in a direct and unambiguous way.
"Adams was agog. Griffin was smart and focused, and he asked penetrating and coherent questions about the market - questions that were so pointed they made Adams stop and search for a coherent answer." (p. 70)

Scotch: decisively put an end to.
"scotched the plan" (p. 76)

Grizzled: having or streaked with gray hair.
"grizzled traders" (p. 77)

Brogue: a strong outdoor shoe with ornamental perforated patterns in the leather.
"Boston brogue" (p. 77)

Chino: a cotton twill fabric, typically khaki-colored. Casual pants made from chino or a similar fabric.
"a loose-fitting blue cotton button-down shirt and tan chinos" (p. 77)

Flatly: in a firm and unequivocal manner; absolutely.
" 'The evidence shows that trying to pick stocks is a complete waste of time,' Fama said flatly." (p. 78)

Crackerjack: exceptionally good.
Crack: very good, especially at a specified activity or in a specified role.
"crackerjack quant combo" (p. 80)

é·mi·nence grise: a person who exercises power or influence in a certain sphere without holding an official position.
"Samuelson was becoming an é·mi·nence grise of the economic community" (p. 83)

Acolyte: a person assisting the celebrant in a religious service or procession.
"It's a paradox that continues to baffle [efficient market hypothesis] acolytes." (p. 84)

Warren: a network of interconnecting rabbit burrows. A densely populated or labyrinthine building or district.
Storied: celebrated in or associated with stories or legends.
"Weinstein would visit after hours and roam the warrrens of the storied bank" (p. 91)

Swap: an exchange of liabilities between two borrowers, either so that each acquires access to funds in a currency they need or so that a fixed interest rate is exchanged for a floating rate.
"In theory, hundreds of swaps, or more, could be written on a single bond."

Hotbed: an environment promoting the growth of something, especially something unwelcome.
"At the time, the quants were known as rocket scientists, since many came from research hotbeds such as Bell Labs, where cell phones were invented, or Los Alamos National Laboratory, birthplae of the atomic bomb. Wall Street's gut traders eventually proved to be no match for such explosive brainpower." (p. 103)

Schlep, schlepper: an inept or stupid person.
"poor schleps at the end of the line" (p. 104)

Nefarious: (typically of an action or activity) wicked or criminal.
"The suit also hinted at a nefarious swaps deal that he described as a 'massive scam' " (p. 116)

Philosopher's stone: a mythical substance supposed to change any metal into gold or silver and, according to some, to cure all diseases and prolong life indefinitely. Its discovery was the supreme object of alchemy.
"the holy grail, the philosopher's stone - the secret mythical Truth of the financial markets" (p. 117)

Unstinting: given or giving without restraint; unsparing.
"unstinting success" (p. 120)

Hamlet: a small settlement, generally one smaller than a village.
"hamlet of the queen" (p. 122)

Faux: not genuine; fake or false.
"faux village" (p. 122)

Apocryphal: (of a story or statement) of doubtful authenticity, although widely circulated as being true.
"One story - perhaps apocryphal" (p. 137)

Credenza: a sideboard or cupboard.
"water kept in an office credenza" (p. 137)

Auspicious: giving or being a sign of future success.
"a very auspicious, and lucky, start" (p. 138)

Beau: a boyfriend or male admirer.
"future beau of the supermodel Elle Macpherson" (p. 142)

Mentalist: a magician who performs feats that apparently demonstrate extraordinary mental powers, such as mind-reading.
"a magician and mentalist" (p. 144)

Gunslinger: a forceful and adventurous participant in a particular sphere.
Preternatural: beyond what is normal or natural.
"Hunter had a reputation as a gunslinger, doubling down on trades if they moved against him. He was preternaturally confident that he would make money on them in the long run, so why not?" (p. 155)

Mogul: an important or powerful person, especially in the motion picture or media industry.
"Hollywood mogul David Geffen" (p. 156)

Magnate: a wealthy and influential person, especially in business.
"publishing magnate S. I. Newhouse" (p. 156)

Filet mignon: a small tender piece of beef from the end of the tenderloin.
Tenderloin: the tenderest part of a loin of beef, pork, etc., taken from under the short ribs in the hindquarters.
"The dinner included lobster, filet mignon, and baked Alaska" (p. 158)

Tony: fashionable among wealthy or stylish people.
"tony, aging resort" (p. 165)

Hothouse: an environment that encourages the rapid growth or development of someone or something, especially in a stifling or intense way.
"a nerdy band of hothouse quants" (p. 176)

Regale: entertain or amuse (someone) with talk.
"regaling the table with tales of 'correlation' " (p. 179)

Byzantine: (of a system or situation) excessively complicated, typically involving a great deal of administrative detail.
"One of the problems with the Byzantine practice of carving up CDOs into all these slices was figuring out how to price them." (p. 180)

Fantasia: a thing that is composed of a mixture of different forms or styles.
"increasingly complex derivatives fantasia" (p. 191)

Veritable: used as an intensifier, often to qualify a metaphor.
"veritable quant fantasyland of riches" (p. 197)

Rout: a decisive defeat.
"The Chinese market began to collapse, falling 10 percent in a single day and triggering a global stock market rout that saw the Dow Jones Industrial Average drop more than 500 points." (p. 198)

Pantheon: a group of particularly respected, famous, or important people.
"highest pantheon of the investing universe" (p. 208)

Scion: a descendant of a notable family.
"due to give birth to the first scion of the Griffin dynasty" (p. 246)

Hard-scrabble: involving hard work and struggle.
"a product of Chicago's hard-scrabble south side" (p. 253)

Brook: tolerate or allow (something, typically dissent or opposition).
Wrought: (of metals) beaten out or shaped by hammering.
"Asness had surrounded himself with yes-men... and brooked no deviation from the carefully wrought models that had made him wildly rich." (p. 255)

Manic: frenetically busy; frantic.
" 'We've got to act fast so this financial tsunami doesn't wash us away,' Fuld said to his underlings, a manic tone in his voice." (p. 256)

Red-eye: an overnight or late-night flight on a commercial airline.
"red-eye back to New York" (p. 258)

Patina: a green or brown film on the surface of bronze or similar metals, produced by oxidation over a long period.
"A patina of sweat glistened on his egglike dome." (p. 263)

Beholden: owing thanks or having a duty to someone in return for help or a service.
"banks would be far more beholden to bank regulators and would be subject to more restrictive capital requirements" (p. 275)

Mendacity: untruthfulness
"anonymous mendacity on the Internet" (p. 284)

Prosaic: having the style or diction of prose; lacking poetic beauty. Commonplace; unromantic.
"The answer, at the end of the day, may be as prosaic as this: The people in charge are smarter than everyone else." (p. 287)

Hobnobbing: mix socially, especially with those of higher social status.
"Griffin was in Beverly Hills hobnobbing with former junk bond king Michael Milken at the Milken Institute Global Conference, where rich people gathered for the primary purpose of reminding one another how smart they are." (p. 301)

Clearinghouse: a bankers' establishment where checks and bills from member banks are exchanged, so that only the balances need be paid in cash.
"Progress had been made in setting up a clearinghouse for credit default swaps to keep better track of the slippery contracts." (p. 312)

January 8, 2018

The Great Depression: A Diary (Benjamin Roth)

Here's the vocabulary list for The Great Depression: A Diary.

The Representative Quotes section is unusually long because this book is full of nuggets of wisdom written by someone in the midst of the Great Depression, not after the fact. I want to keep a record of what I learned for future reference.

I've preserved numerous spelling and grammar errors that appeared in the original diary (and, therefore, in the published work).

Knowing more about the Great Depression has helped me better appreciate elements of our popular culture like the songs Happy Days are Here Again (1929, pre-Depression, with Barbra Streisand's post-Depression, post-WWII performance in 1962) and Somewhere Over the Rainbow (1939).

Roth, Benjamin. The Great Depression: A Diary. PublicAffairs, 2009.

Representative Quotes

"In 1929 when the crash came all sorts of people were into the market on margins over their heads - doctors, lawyers, merchants, bootblacks, waitresses, etc. They bought stocks on tips, did not know what the company sold or made and did not know how to investigate a stock even if such a thought had occurred to them." (p. 6)

"June 5, 1931: The sheriff has been selling recently at public sale many vacant lots on which accumulated taxes amount to $500 or more. At these sales the lots are selling as low as $25 apiece clear of taxes. One of my clients bought ten of them ranging from $10 to $50. Of course they are mostly located in undesirable neighborhoods. Another client had 10 buildings razed because he could not collect rents and the taxes are exorbitant. This is a popular way to reduce taxes.... The constant supervision required by real estate, the costly upkeep, its illiquidity, the danger of a deficiency judgment - all have cooled me considerably." (p. 9)

"July 30, 1931: Magazines and newspapers are full of articles telling people to buy stocks, real estate etc. at bargain prices. They say that times are sure to get better and that many big fortunes have been built this way. The trouble is that nobody has any money." (p. xii)

"August 9, 1931: Professional men have been hit hard by the depression. This is particularly true of doctors and dentists. Their overhead is high and collections are impossible. One doctor smoothed a dollar bill out on his desk the other day and said that was all the money he had taken in for a week." (p. xii)

"October 10, 1931: Again and again I am forced to the conclusion that in prosperous times a man must be cautious and preserve his capital and be careful not to over-expand his business or to go too deeply into debt relying on a continuation of good business to pay the debt. In time of depression a man can be brave and if the depression is nearing an end he can invest his money or expand his business or open a new business with confidence that he is facing 5 or 10 years of prosperity. He can feel sure that the road will be up - not down. Many great and prosperous businesses were founded on the ruins of depression....
"A great many losses and failures in business and in investment are due to the reversal of this policy. At the height of prosperity they rush in to buy stocks or real estate or businesses and assume enormous indebtedness which can be liquidated only if the boom spiral mounts higher and higher. Then comes an abrupt end to prosperity - a crash - and down go these businesses and investments purchased at top prices. If the purchase was made mostly with borrowed capital as so often happens - then you can write finis to the chapter." (p. 28)

"April 6, 1936: I read an interesting thing today about Floyd Odlum and the building up of his Atlas Investment Trust. Started with $40,000 in 1924 - ran it up to a million in 1929. Sold out for cash and held on to cash until the bottom of depression was reached in 1932. With his cash he bought heavily in 'special situations.' Mostly in investment trusts hard up for cash. Stocks in these trusts were selling for less than 50% of their asset values. Since the assets were stocks quoted at depression levels - the buyer of such an investment trust bought the assets at 1/2 of depression values. He then held on and later liquidated at huge profits. He never took over the active management of a business but sold the stock to those who could run it. There were many such 'special situations' during the depression. He was actually buying stocks under the hammer. The same thing happened with railroads and other companies such as Continental Shares when they went into receivership. The person who had enough money to liquidate them could have had the assets for a song. Same principle as buying real estate at a foreclosure sold for price of the mortgage. Assets of the Atlas Corporation are now over $100,000,000 and they have literally become private bankers." (p. 171)

"April 28. 1936: For the last two weeks the stock market has been slowly sinking. Yesterday a bad break brought losses ranging as high as 10 points. It is funny how when the stock market is rising every piece of news is regarded optimistically and bad news is ignored. Now the reverse is true." (p. 171)

"August 24, 1936: It is an interesting sidelight on this depression that many companies which went into receivership during the depression are now being reorganized. In most cases the common stock was wiped out but bonds or preferred are good. In 1933-4 these preferred stocks could be bought for as low as 25 cents per share ($100 par) and are now worth as high as $14 (Continental shares). Here again a man with liquid capital and courage could have made a fortune on a comparatively small investment. Some who bought at low prices did not have the courage to hold on and sold at a nice profit of $4 or $5 per share. The real winnings went to those who held onto the receivership shares throughout the whole reorganization." (p. 176)

"January 2, 1937: "1932-1936 were bad depression years for the lawyer and even tho prosperity has returned for most people it has not yet returned for the lawyer. It will be a year or more before people will have enough money to buy real estate and do other things that require a lawyer. The lawyer who specialized in bankruptcies, receiverships and reorganizations reaped a harvest throughout the depression....
"Cash is king in every depression. A small investment in real estate or stocks or bonds in 1932 would be worth a fortune today.... Even though good stocks, bonds, and real estate were selling at giveaway prices but few men had both the cash and the courage to buy when things looked the blackest.
"When the final upturn came in 1935 it came very quietly and suddenly and kept going up.... the full effect cannot be appreciated unless you look back to see what progress was made in 1935-1936.
"During past depressions prominent bankers, business men, etc. were all wrong in most of their predictions. Use your own judgment and do your own thinking." (p. 194)

"March 11, 1937: President Roosevelt is still hell-bent for reform and his latest proposal is to pack the Supreme Court so it will hold constitutional his New Deal laws." (p. 197)

"October 12, 1937: During the past 2 years of general recovery, the law profession lagged behind. We are still badly in debt and have not yet had a chance to recover. It has been a long, hard pull." (p. 201)

June 24, 1938: Stock prices have continued straight up for more than a week now and many gains amount to 50% or more. Just as in 1932 the rise came after a lull of several weeks and a falling down in volume of sales - but no indication of improvement in business indices. It caught the economists flat-footed.
"Both 1932 and 1938 indicate there is no way to catch the bottom of the swing because it comes without warning. When liquidation has dried up and the situation looks hopeless - that is the turn. Your guess is as good as anybody's." (p. 213)

"July 20, 1938: In this depression at least the stock upturn came several weeks before business indexes showed any improvement. For the past two weeks these indexes have been turning slowly up. At the time of the stock market upsurge the indexes were very slowly moving down and some were stationary. Same with stocks. Volume was low and there were many indications of a sold-out market." (p. 214)

"March 10, 1939: Talked to W.W.Z. today. He said: During the past 10 years I lost half my life savings in local banks and corporations. The directors were personal friends and they advised my investments. I thought they were high-minded men and would look after the business. When the companies were broke I found out they had protected themselves and nobody else. If I had to do it over again I would invest only in outstanding national corporations with stocks listed on the N.Y. Exchange so I could sell when trouble threatened." (p. 216)

"October 16, 1940: From time to time people tell me of their experience in the stock market. For the most part they were within reach of large profits but did not take them. Dr. S.D. said: In 1929 I held $180,000 in stocks subject to a 40% margin. The crash caught me and I rushed in to sell but my broker strongly advised against it. Later I had to put up $10,000 additional margin. I finally sold out in 1930 and salvaged only the $10,000 margin. I put this $10,000 in the Home Savings Bank. It closed in 1931. In 1932 when the market was at low ebb I sold my pass book on the Home Savings for $4000 - and bought high grade stocks at 1/10 their real value. I determined to hold these until the market came back to normal. I did hold on until the first part of 1935 but then I needed money so badly I sold these stocks for about $10,000. Six months later these stocks shot sky high and I would have made an extra $50,000 if I had been able to hold on." (p. 235)

"July 9, 1941: As usual the law profession drags along in the vanguard and has reflected very little of the war boom." (p. 248)

"December 15, 1941: Stocks are selling today on a 20% earning basis. Even if taxes go higher they are a good buy for the long pull." (p. 251)

"December 31, 1941: This is the craziest business year I have ever been through. We are at war, steel mills have been humming, wages are high and everybody working - yet my law practice was worse in 1941 than in 1940. Because of war, high taxes, threat of inflation, government restrictions, etc. etc. business men are afraid to expand, buy real estate or do anything constructive and there is very little for the lawyer except an occasional divorce case or other domestic business.... Some businesses do record business and others go broke. It is all a matter of luck. Auto dealers sold a record number of cars in 1940 and now there are no tires to sell. Tires have been rationed - so dealers in new tires are out of business while second-hand dealers and re-treaders are busy. There may be a few people who are making money but I do not know who. This is truly a 'profitless' prosperity and it takes a strong heart to remain in business." (p. 252)

SAT Vocabulary Words

Racketeer: a person who engages in dishonest and fraudulent business dealings.
"Youngstown's steel industry was booming again, and racketeers were getting rich on illegal gambling." (p. x)

Receivership: the state of being dealt with by an official receiver.
Receiver: a person or company appointed by a court to manage the financial affairs of a business or person that has gone bankrupt.
"Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac had to be taken into receivership [in 2008]." (p. xii)

Kitty-cornered (cater-cornered): situated diagonally opposite someone or something.
"Visit the nicely appointed library or historical society at Youngstown (they are partically kitty-corner across Wick Avenue from one another)" (p. xx)

Palimpset: a manuscript or piece of writing material on which the original writing has been effaced to make room for later writing but of which traces remain.
"As if constructing a kind of economic palimpset, Roth would occasionally go back and annotate his earlier entries and did not hesitate to prove himself wrong." (p. xxi)

Rouge: a red powder or cream used as a cosmetic for coloring the cheeks or lips.
"in the latter stages of the [1922-1929] delerium [women] wore their stockings rolled and their bare knees rogued" (p. 4)

Scalper: a person who resells shares or tickets at a large or quick profit.
Par: the face value of a stock or other security, as distinct from its market value.
"The scalper then sold these bonds on the market at par and with the money scalped some more bonds." (p. 6)

Pot: a toilet.
"June 28, 1962: The U--- family bought half of East Federal St. at sheriff sales in the 1930s. However down-town real estate has gone to pot because of the growth of suburban shopping centers. The U--- family still owns half of E. Federal St. but the buildings are empty and cannot sell." (p. 13)

Rabid: having or proceeding from an extreme or fanatical support of or belief in something.
"He was particularly rabid against his investments in real estate." (p. 17)

Stogy: a long, thin, inexpensive cigar.
"2 for 5 stogies are again in popular favor" (p. 20)

Vicious: (of language or a line of reasoning) imperfect; defective.
"This scarcity of money is what makes people think if more money were printed business would be better. This is a false and vicious theory." (p. 24)

Millinery: women's hats.
"millinery store" (p. 25)

Fraternity: a group of people sharing a common profession or interests.
"The whole banking fraternity is in public disfavor" (p. 26)

Bated: in great suspense; very anxiously or excitedly.
"with bated breath we asked 'What next?' " (p. 32)

Ways and means: the methods and resources at someone's disposal for achieving something.
"a meeting... to consider ways and means.... the choir has been fired and other economies affected but this does not seem enough" (p. 41)

Go to the wall: (of a business) fail; go out of business.
"Many old businesses are going to the wall" (p. 44)

Dub: give an unofficial name or nickname to (someone or something).
"dubbed themselves the Bonus Expeditionary Force" (p. 51)

Extraction: the ethnic origin of someone's family.
"of German extraction" (p. 56)

Plead: present and argue for (a position), especially in court or in another public context.
"pleading 'state rights' on the Prohibition question" (p. 63)

Shantytown: a deprived area on the outskirts of a town consisting of large numbers of crude dwellings.
"burned down the shantytown where some 15,000 veterans had camped" (p. 65)

Semi-annual: occurring twice a year; half-yearly.
"unfavorable semi-annual reports" (p. 66)

Thrall: the state of being in someone's power or having great power over someone.
"nearly one-third of the value of farms was in thrall, mainly to banks and insurance" (p. 79)

Magnate: a wealthy and influential person, especially in business.
"car magnate Henry Ford" (p. 90)

Indict: formally accuse of or charge with a serious crime.
"Indictment of bankers and investigations are the order of the day." (p. 104)

Terrific: of great size, amount, or intensity.
"Everything depends on the President. It is a terrific responsibility." (p. 108)

Brain trust: a group of experts appointed to advise a government or politician.
"Pres. Roosevelt's advisers are a group of college professors called 'the brain trust.' " (p. 116)

Piece work: work paid for according to the amount produced.
"the girls claim they work long hours on piece work" (p. 116)

High finance: financial transactions involving large amounts of money.
"A great deal of rotten-ness in high finance has been discovered." (p. 119)

Come to a head: reach a crisis.
"I believe the issue of more direct inflation will come to a head soon. In the meantime my law practice remains stagnant while commodity prices go up at a dizzying pace." (p. 131)

Tory: an American colonist who supported the British side during the American Revolution.
"The U.S. Chamber of Commerce takes a public stand against President Roosevelt's gold policy and demands a return to sound money and the gold standard. The President strikes back by calling them a bunch of 'tories.' Remembering that George Washington would not accept Continental currency in his business dealings I do not quite see the parallel implied by the use of the term." (p. 140)

Ejectment: the action or process of evicting a tenant from property.
"Radical socialism seems rapant in every class of society but mostly ministers and college professors. This has spread to the working class. They no longer ask for favors but 'demand' government work, cancellation of mortgages, reduction of debts, etc. They feel the courts will not permit foreclosure of mortgages or ejectments, etc." (p. 156)

Demagogue: a political leader who seeks support by appealing to popular desires and prejudices rather than by using rational argument.
Panacea: a solution or remedy for all difficulties or diseases.
"the voice of the demagog began to be heard throughout the land. Socialism, Communism, more equitable distribution of wealth, new currency and other panaceas became ordinary table talk." (p. 159)

Avarice: extreme greed for wealth or material gain.
"avaricious and not satisfied with a fair investment return" (p. 179)

Scurrilous: making or spreading scandalous claims about someone with the intention of damaging their reputation.
"scurrilous anti-Semitic literature" (p. 182)

Pump-priming: the stimulation of economic activity by investment.
"March 1, 1938: After 8 years of pump-priming and other trick methods of bringing back prosperity, it is my conclusion that none of them are any good. In our capitalistic system we must let the forces of competition and demand and supply work things out in a natural way. No man or group of men is smart enough to control prices or supply and demand or currency in a nation so large as ours." (p. 210)

Cash and carry: a system of wholesale trading whereby goods are paid for in full at the time of purchase and taken away by the purchaser.
Embargo: an official ban on trade or other commercial activity with a particular country.
" 'cash and carry' embargo" (p. 223)

Ebb: (of an emotion or quality) gradually lessen or reduce.
"morality and religion have been at a low ebb" (p. 225)

Bait: torment (a trapped or restrained animal), especially by allowing dogs to attack it.
"Wilkie [FDR's opponent in the Presidential election] promises to hold on to the social gains but to put a stop to the baiting of big business; to the trend toward government ownership and national socialism." (p. 236)

Firm: (of a price) rise slightly to reach a level considered secure.
"a firming of money rates" (p. 240)

Harden: (of prices of stocks, commodities, etc.) rise and remain steady at a higher level.
"interest rates will not harden in the next 6 months" (p. 243)

June 5, 2017

Think Beyond California

Most people go to college because it's they path they've been told to follow. If, on the other hand, you view school as a step along the path to getting rich, you have to make deliberate choices.

To give you some context, I have some experience in business. I developed an educational Web site in 2005 and sold it for a profit. I left California in 2006 at the top of the real estate bubble and moved to Oklahoma City, one of the most undervalued housing markets in the country at the time. The Oklahoma market had been in a twenty-year slump and was just starting to come back, and it managed to avoid the real estate crash that plagued most of the country from 2007-2012. The private school I'd been working for in California laid off a significant fraction of its teachers during that time.

I worked for a real estate company developing quantitative models to value properties and taught science and ACT at a private school, then back to California in 2016 after seeing oil (and Oklahoma oil companies) crash in 2014-15.

Good timing has helped my career as an educator indirectly. I've had all the work I can handle, and I've never had to watch my co-workers get fired due to a recession.

If you want to get rich, you have to take greater risks than I did. You have to borrow money to go to business school, to buy rental properties, or to start a company. Your chances of success will be much greater if you minimize your debt, keep your living expenses low, and buy assets in an undervalued market that's unlikely to crash.

California, with its high cost of living, is a risky place to get rich. The problem is magnified if buying residential or commercial real estate is part of your plan. Housing prices are so high in the Bay Area that the income from a rental property won't even pay the taxes and interest on an 80% loan.

Of course, there's a reason prices are so high. Some people who live here are already rich. Others need to be close to high-tech opportunities in Silicon Valley.

If, on the other hand, you want to be a real estate mogul or open a chain of restaurants, your start-up costs will be lower and your cash flow higher if you move away from the coast. If you're in an undervalued real estate market and your properties appreciate in value, you'll experience higher gains with lower risk.

Real estate is a relatively illiquid market. People buy homes even when they know they're too expensive, and they wait to sell until they absolutely have to. Most people won't buy property out-of-state or move somewhere just because rental properties are cheap. Overvalued and undervalued areas take years, if not decades, to correct to fair values.

If I were a high school student wanting to get rich, I'd choose a college in an undervalued real estate market, something that's gone down for the past twenty or forty years and has just recently started to recover. A college in a depopulated area like that is going to be eager to get students and might offer me a scholarship. I'd have years to find the local business connections I needed, and my living expenses would be low. If I had the money, I might even buy some houses and rent them out to college students.

The map below, from 2014, suggests that the overvalued markets are on the West Coast and in the oil patch (Texas/Oklahoma) markets. A 2016 Forbes article suggests the same pattern.

If I were 18, I'd consider moving to Detroit. The median home value is only $40,400. That's 1/22nd of San Jose's $885,000! The median rent is $750/month or $9,000/year: 22% of the median home value.

Detroit has just started coming out of a forty-year slump. The charts below show that the collapse in its real estate market continued well past 2008. The market has just turned around with a 19.2% year-on-year change.


Detroit as of June 5, 2017

Residential Median Home Values: Detroit, 2007-2017

Residential Median Home Values: Detroit and San Jose, 2007-2017

An undervalued housing market looks a lot like a value stock. A multi-year collapse in prices leads to favorable financial ratios and the potential for capital appreciation.

Detroit isn't the only city that's undervalued, of course. It just happens to be a market I've watched since 2008. I've waited for it to start coming back, and it looks like it finally has.

If you decide to pursue this plan, expect a lot of resistance from people you know. Being a contrarian isn't easy, and that may be why most people don't take advantages of the opportunities that are in front of them. You need a college admissions counselor who can think outside the box and recommend schools in areas that people don't want to live in (yet). Most of all, you need to define your own goals and bring them to your counselor. You're paying her, so you're the boss. Tell her about your long-term plans and ask her to help you reach them.

If you move forward, contact me so I can hear your story. After you become famous, I can say that I knew you when you were still in college!